A three-year growth strategy for a regional retail chain
Helping a family-owned retailer decide between more stores, online growth and private label — with numbers behind every option.
The challenge
After years of steady growth, the chain faced pressure from international DIY chains and online marketplaces. The board was split between three directions: aggressive store expansion, investment in e-commerce, or building private label. Each option required significant capital, and the board needed a shared fact base to decide.
The question
Where should we invest over the next three years to grow profitably — and what should we stop doing?
Our approach
- 01
Market model — size and growth of the home and garden category by region and channel.
- 02
Catchment analysis — performance and potential of 40 existing and candidate locations, based on demographics, competition and sales data.
- 03
Customer research — survey of 3,100 customers plus analysis of loyalty programme data to understand who buys what, where and why.
- 04
Competitor benchmarking — pricing, assortment, private label share and online offer of 8 competitors.
- 05
Board workshops — three sessions to define ambition, evaluate scenarios and agree priorities.
- 06
Scenario model — financial model comparing the three strategic options and their combinations.
What we delivered
- Three-year strategy with clear priorities and investment plan
- Scenario model the finance team continues to use
- KPI tree and quarterly tracking dashboard
- Implementation roadmap with owners and milestones
Outcome
One strategy
Board aligned on one strategy: private label and click & collect first, selective store expansion second
12 → 5
New store openings reduced from 12 planned to 5 in the highest-potential locations
2 stores
2 underperforming stores identified for closure or relocation
Key insight
The chain's loyal customers did not want more stores nearby — they wanted better value and faster pickup. The best growth lever was already inside the existing network.
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