Launching a premium FMCG brand in Poland and the Baltics
Which market first, which channel, at what price — answered with evidence before a single pallet shipped.
The challenge
The client had grown strongly in Western Europe and planned to enter CEE. Leadership assumed the brand's premium positioning would travel unchanged and had prepared a simultaneous launch in four countries. Before committing the launch budget, they needed an independent view of market size, competition, price tolerance and the right sequence of entry.
The question
Where should we launch first, through which channels, and at what price can the brand win share without eroding margins?
Our approach
- 01
Market sizing — combined retail panel data, trade statistics and company filings into a category model by country and channel (modern trade, discounters, convenience, e-grocery).
- 02
Retail audits — store checks in 120 outlets across Warsaw, Kraków, Vilnius and Riga: shelf space, price points, promotions and competitor presence.
- 03
Expert interviews — 18 interviews with category managers, distributors and buyers at national retail chains.
- 04
Consumer research — online survey of 2,400 category buyers across the four countries, with price sensitivity testing (Van Westendorp) and a conjoint study on pack size, price and claims.
- 05
Strategy workshop — scenarios for launch sequence, channel mix and pricing, stress-tested with the client's commercial team.
What we delivered
- Category model with 3-year forecasts by country and channel
- Launch sequence recommendation with go/no-go criteria for each market
- Price corridor and pack architecture for each country
- Channel and listing plan for the first 12 months
- Launch tracking dashboard (sell-out, distribution, price) for the commercial team
Outcome
Poland first
Launch in one market instead of four, with the Baltics following after 9 months
12%
Lower entry price than originally planned, set within the range consumers accepted
Within 8%
First-year sales within 8% of forecast
Key insight
Consumers in the region did not see the brand as "premium" — they saw it as a "better-for-you treat". Repositioning around that perception, and pricing for it, mattered more than any media budget.
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